Rishi Kohli, Chief Investment Officer of JioBlackRock Asset Management, has cautioned that while the worst of the market volatility may have passed, the path to recovery for Indian investors will be far from easy. Despite a 7% year-to-date drop in the Nifty 50, the fund house is maintaining a “fully invested” stance, eschewing cash calls in favor of long-term asset allocation.
Key Market Pressures: Why India is Lagging
Indian equity returns have underperformed global peers recently due to a “perfect storm” of macro factors:
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FII Exodus: Foreign Institutional Investors have engaged in massive selling, driven by global uncertainty and a pivot toward AI-heavy opportunities in other markets.
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Geopolitical Volatility: The ongoing conflict in West Asia and the 2025 trade and tariff uncertainties have created a high-risk environment.
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Delayed Earnings Recovery: While corporate earnings showed a slight uptick in recent quarters, Kohli notes that the war has likely pushed a broad-based recovery back by 3 to 6 months.
Adjusting Expectations: The “Realism” Check
The optimism for high double-digit earnings growth has been tempered by current events:
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Consensus Target: 14–16% earnings growth for FY26.
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JioBlackRock Estimate: A more “realistic” 10–12%.
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Sector Focus: Unlike the broad-based rally of 2021–2024, Kohli expects growth to be restricted to specific “pockets of sectors and stocks.”
The JioBlackRock Strategy: Neutralizing Risk
Rather than moving to cash—which Kohli believes is a decision for the client or advisor—the fund house is focused on risk-screen management:
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Style Neutrality: The fund curtails momentum or value exposures if they become too dominant, preventing any single factor from over-influencing the portfolio.
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Hybrid Launch: Reflecting the current uncertainty, JioBlackRock is launching its first Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) in the hybrid category to offer a buffer against volatility.
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No One-Way Street: Investors are warned to abandon the expectation of the linear upward trend seen in previous years.
Strategic Outlook
With the NSE Nifty 50 currently struggling below the 24,200 mark, Kohli expects the next two to three quarters to remain challenging. The firm’s strategy emphasizes the importance of staying invested while being highly selective, as the timeline for a return to normalcy remains tied to the resolution of the conflict in West Asia.
“It’s not going to be a one-way street like it was between 2021-2024… the next 2-3 quarters are going to be tough.” — Rishi Kohli, CIO, JioBlackRock
