A new report from Verisk reveals a startling trend in the insurance landscape: while the total number of claims dropped in 2025, the complexity and concentration of risks have reached new highs. This “Insurance Risk Paradox” suggests that insurers are facing more severe, high-value losses even as their desks see fewer overall filings.
The Numbers: A Surface-Level Decline
Total claim volumes saw a significant dip in 2025, largely due to a quieter-than-usual hurricane season:
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Homeowners’ Claims: Fell 19% to 5.27 million, a five-year low.
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Commercial Property: Dropped from 910,000 in 2023 to 710,000 in 2025.
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Personal Auto: Declined by 3%, continuing a downward trend from 2024.
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Theft Claims: Vehicle thefts plummeted by 25% overall.
The Reality: Shifting and Concentrated Risks
Despite the drop in volume, the Verisk report highlights three “hidden” areas where risk is actually accelerating:
1. The Gig-Economy Surge
Commercial auto claims related to the gig economy have exploded. Since 2021, these claims have jumped 96%, now making up one out of every ten commercial auto claims.
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Food Delivery: Claims in this sector saw a staggering 300% increase.
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Ride-Hailing: Volumes rose by 66%.
2. Targeted Auto Theft
While fewer cars are being stolen overall, thieves are becoming “specialists.” Theft is now heavily concentrated on high-value components and specific brands, including Infiniti, Kia, Hyundai, and Acura. Additionally, rising precious metal prices in 2026 suggest a potential resurgence in catalytic converter thefts.
3. The “Slow Burn” of Wildfires
The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires illustrated that acreage isn’t the only metric for disaster. Because these fires hit high-value, densely populated areas, the financial impact was immense.
Note: Smoke damage accounted for 30% of initial claims. Historically, wildfire losses “develop” over years—roughly 35% of smoke claims from past major fires weren’t even filed until two years after the event.
Emerging Liabilities: The New Frontiers
The report also identified a sharp rise in “niche” but high-severity liability claims:
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Environmental Hazards: Claims involving PFAS (forever chemicals) and crystalline dust/silica have risen from near-zero to thousands of filings annually.
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E-Bikes: Claims have quadrupled since 2021, driven by a combination of rider injuries, battery fires, and high theft rates.
The Bottom Line
Insurers cannot afford to be complacent about falling claim counts. As Shane Riedman, president of anti-fraud analytics at Verisk, notes, “Claims data is often the earliest signal of how risk is changing.” The 2026 landscape requires insurers to look past the volume and focus on the evolving “complexity” of the losses that remain.
