Warren Buffett once shared a metaphor that serves as a reality check for anyone who has ever felt like a financial genius during a market rally: the preening duck.
Imagine a duck sitting on a pond during a torrential rainstorm. As the water level rises, the duck rises with it, quacking boastfully and fully convinced that its own superior paddling skills are what caused it to lift off the ground. The duck, of course, is completely wrong. It is simply a passenger of the rising tide.
Buffett’s point is clear: Never mistake a bull market for personal investing skill.
This lesson hits incredibly close to home for the millions of retail investors who flooded into the Indian stock market post-COVID. Up until mid-2024, the relentless upward march of the indices made making money look effortless. It was a classic “rising tide lifts all boats” (or rather, all ducks) scenario, and many began to mistake market momentum for individual genius.
Today, however, that narrative is shifting. Investors are currently going through a phase of bitter learning, experiencing for the very first time what a prolonged period of volatility, sector rotations, and market corrections actually feels like. It is a harsh but necessary reminder that when the rain stops and the water recedes, only true strategy—not just sitting on the pond—keeps you afloat.
