If you were about to call the technician for your annual AC tune-up, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests you might have a brief window of relief. In its latest seasonal outlook released on March 31, 2026, the weather office predicts a wetter and relatively cooler start to the summer in many regions, followed by a severe escalation in heat later in the season.
1. The April “Cooling” Effect
For much of North, Central, and Northwest India, April is expected to be milder than usual.
-
More Rain: The IMD predicts above-normal rainfall (roughly 112% of the Long Period Average) across most of the country, excluding the Northeast.
-
Western Disturbances: A high frequency of western disturbances is expected to bring thunderstorms and gusty winds, keeping daytime maximum temperatures normal to below normal for the first half of the month.
-
The Exception: Parts of East and Northeast India, as well as the Southern Peninsula, may still see above-normal daytime temperatures even in April.
2. The “May–June” Heatwave Warning
The relief is temporary. The IMD has issued a stern warning for a significant spike in heatwave days during the peak summer months of May and June.
-
The “Hot Zones”: The following states are likely to face an above-normal number of heatwave days:
-
North & Northwest: Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, and Southern Uttar Pradesh.
-
East & Central: Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh.
-
South: Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Northern Karnataka, and Coastal Tamil Nadu.
-
-
Longer Spells: Heatwaves this year are expected to last 2 to 4 days longer than the typical 3-to-5-day average, with some regions potentially seeing continuous 9-day spells.
3. Warmer Nights Ahead
A unique feature of the 2026 summer forecast is the prediction of “Above-Normal Minimum Temperatures.”
-
While days might be cooler in April due to rain, the nights will remain warm across almost the entire country.
-
The only regions expected to have normal to below-normal night temperatures are Telangana and parts of Maharashtra.
-
Why it matters: Warmer nights prevent the body (and your home) from cooling down, increasing the overall heat stress and reliance on cooling appliances.
4. The El Niño Factor
The IMD is keeping a close watch on the Pacific Ocean. Most weather models indicate the development of a “Super El Niño” post-June.
-
Monsoon Impact: While a cooler April is good for immediate comfort, climatologists warn that “less heating” of the landmass can sometimes weaken the natural pull of monsoon winds.
-
The Verdict: A clearer picture of the 2026 Monsoon will be released on April 15.
Strategic Planning for Households
-
AC Servicing: If you are in the North or Northwest, you can likely push your servicing to the second or third week of April to ensure your unit is in peak condition just as the May heatwave hits.
-
Agriculture: Farmers in North and Central India should be cautious; the predicted “Wet April” could impact late-sown rabi crops like wheat due to potential hailstorms.
IMD Pro-Tip: Stay tuned for the Orange and Red alerts already being issued for parts of Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi today (April 1) due to active thunderstorms.
