Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price forecasts by $5 per barrel, reacting directly to mounting maritime security risks and escalating military standoffs in the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Adjustments and Price Targets
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Updated Projections: The bank lifted its price targets to $85 per barrel for Brent and $80 per barrel for WTI for December 2026, while adjusting its 2027 forecasts to $80 and $75 per barrel, respectively.
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The Upside Risk Scenario: Goldman warned that if regional attacks on shipping intensify and Persian Gulf output remains severely depressed—potentially staying roughly 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels—tightening inventories could drive Brent crude past $120 per barrel.
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The Downside Scenario: Conversely, the bank noted that a normalization of Gulf exports could ease prices back toward an $80 floor.
Drivers Behind the Revisions
The forecast upgrades come as commercial shipping through the vital Middle Eastern chokepoint slows significantly. Ongoing retaliatory actions between the U.S. and Iran—including naval blockades, targeted strikes on oil tankers near key export hubs like Kharg Island, and Tehran’s declaration of restricted maritime zones—have injected a substantial geopolitical risk premium into global energy markets.
Rather than focusing solely on crude, Goldman analysts have also highlighted that refined petroleum products (such as diesel) and global natural gas markets are experiencing acute supply shocks that outpace crude itself, making product-market hedges particularly attractive for managing regional escalation risks.
